El Niño Effect / エルニーニョの影響

As noted in an earlier post, the development of an El Niño pattern would be problematic for our voyage.   That has turned out to be the case.  Please see the weather forecast and routing below.   Nonetheless, all is well and our thoughts are not on our “luck” but simply what does it take to move forward.  

以前の投稿にも記した通り広がりつつあるエルニーニョの影響が我々の航行に影響するかもしれないという事でしたが、どうやらそれは現実になってきているようです。下の英文ですが天気予想とルートの提案をご覧下さい。まぁそうは言っても、大丈夫です。我々は運任せではなく、単に今ある状況に対してどうやって推進力を出していくかという課題に向き合うのみです。

Route: San Diego, CA to JapanPosition: 26 59n/119 05w at 1425utc Thu, Feb 28, 2019, cog 221, speed 4.2 ktsPrepared: 1500utc Thursday, February 28, 2019
Summary:  1) Keep in mind this is an El Nino global weather pattern. For you, that means a lot of low pressure between Hawaii and California  a) what makes the trade winds is the location, strength, and persistency of the high pressure cell N of us  b) if it is mostly low pressure N of us then the trade winds will be weak and problematic – you probably know that by now!2) Right now,  a) weak high pressure is located near 26-27n/120-124w and will be in our vicinity for the next 3 days  b) there is a little low pressure near 24-25n/136-140w and a large low not far to the NW – this low pressure complex will be moving NE, reaching San Francisco  Sat night/Sun  c) and, there will be more low pressure forming N and NE of Hawaii during Sun3) Bottom-line, a really terrible weather pattern for trade winds, but it will get better W of Hawaii. We just have to get there4) There is and will be little or no wind to the W and SW of us  a) trade winds will be good and somewhat reliable near and S of 20n. So, our goal is to get S and get S of 20n5) Winds today and tomorrow will be quite variable from the NW, N, and NE  a) we DO NOT want to head W or WNW – we will be sailing away from where the trade winds are located  b) we are better off sailing towards the S and SSE than W and WNW  c) so best point of sail to head SW, S, and SSE today, tomorrow, and Sat6) By Sun morning, the high pressure cell will be located from 25-26n/124-134w  a) NE winds 12-16 kts will be as close as 22 30n/120w7) The high will shift NE during Mon and Tue  a) this will allow the trade winds to spread to the N  b) but, keep in mind, this will not last until we reach 20n and further S  c) I have you on starboard until wind directions reach 060 and then we go to port – remember, we need to get SW, S, and even more S!
Wind forecast Time is UTC: Wind directions are TRUE / wind speed in kts
Thu, Feb 28 1800: 330-010/ 8-12Weather…Cloudy to partly cloudy with NW swell of 3-6 feet
Fri, March 100: 350-030/ 5-1006: 360-030/ 5-1012: 350-310/ 6-10, near 26 05/119 55w18: 350-030/10-15Weather…Cloudy to partly cloudy with NW swell of 4-7 feet
Sat, March 2 00: 020-340/10-506: 030-070/ 4-712: 040-080/ 3-7, estimating you near 25n/120 25w and heading S18: 010-050/ 3-6Weather…Cloudy to partly cloudy with NW swell of 3-6 feet
Sun, Mar 300: 010-030/ 5-906: 010-030/ 5-812: 360-030/ 5-9, near 24 05n/121 05w18: 010-030/ 6-10Weather…Partly cloudy with NW and N seas of 3-6 feet
Mon, Mar 400: 360-020/ 9-1306: 010-030/11-1512: 010-030/11-17, near 23 20n/122 35w18: 030-050/12-16Partly cloudy with N-NE seas 3-6 feet and a little NW swell
Tue, Mar 500: 040-060/13-18, on port when wind directions reach 06006: 050-070/13-1712: 080-100/12-17, estimating you near 21 40n/124w18: 100-070/16-8Partly cloudy with N-NE seas 4-7 feet

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