Weather / 気象

We have been watching the weather.   The timing and route of the trip are based on finishing the voyage by May 1 so as to avoid any risk of encountering a typhoon while arriving as late as possible to Japan to avoid the storms and low pressure systems near  Japan in early spring.   We have chosen to use the trade winds route and go southwest out of San Diego, turn west around 18 degree north latitude, pass south of Hawaii and turn northwest to Japan before getting close to the North Marianas (Guam and Saipan).    The advantages of this route are:  more consistent winds, favorable current, less likelyhood of gales, less boat traffic and warmer weather.   Our concern is a possible El Nino event that would weaken the trade winds, although at this point it seems the event, if it occurs, will be mild.  If ti does occur,   this would mean lighter and less predictable winds, slower current  and a slower passage.  A slower passage means the trip will take longer.  Also, a main source of our electricity is the hydrogenerator which produces much more electricity  when going faster.  
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/

The ENSO Outlook has been downgraded to El Niño WATCH. An El Niño WATCH means there is around a 50% chance of El Niño developing in the coming season. Recent observations and climate outlooks suggest the risk of El Niño development in the coming months has eased. In addition, the natural seasonal cycle of ENSO does not favour El Niño development at this time of year.However, with ocean temperatures in the central tropical Pacific remaining warmer than average, and with the majority of models indicating this warmth could persist until winter, the risk of El Niño development later in 2019 remains.Further information on the current status of ENSO can be found in the ENSO Wrap-Up

気象情報に注意を払っています。出航のタイミングや航路は本年５月１日までに日本到着を想定して決めました。台風シーズンより前ながらも日本近海の春の低気圧や嵐が落ち着く出来るだけ遅めのタイミングを計っています。太平洋上の貿易風を使い、サンディエゴ沖を南西に進み、北緯１８度線で舵を切り、ハワイ諸島の南を進み、北マリアナ諸島（グアム、サイパン）の手前付近で北西に進み日本に向かいます。この航路の利点はしっかりとした大きな風が安定して吹いている事、潮の流れ、また他の船の往来が少なく温暖な気候である傾向にあるという事です。留意を払うべき事はエルニーニョ現象で貿易風を弱めてしまう可能性がありますが、現時点ではもしエルニーニョが起こってもわずかなのではないかと言う予想です。もし起こるとしたら風は弱く、予想し難くなり、潮の流れもゆっくりになり、航行も低速になり、旅も長くなります。また、この船の主たる電力供給源は水力発電機で、船速が早ければ電力供給も高まると言う事です。

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/